MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM NORTHWEST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 23 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A FULLY DECOUPLED SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION NOW SHEARED AROUND TWO HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC WHICH REMAINS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF KOREA BAY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC, SUPPORTED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL DEFINED LLC EVIDENT IN A 262232Z CORIOLIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AND LIES ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND T4.0 FROM RJTD, AS WELL AS AN ADT ESTIMATE OF 3.8 (63 KNOTS) ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TY BAVI LIES IN AN EXTREMELY UNFAVORABLE AND HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, LYING UNDER STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, WITH STRONG (30-40 KNOT) VWS, AND SSTS LESS THAN 22 DEG (CELSIUS). TY 09W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, TY 09W WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH KOREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN CONTINUE TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDERGOING RAPID WEAKENING DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION. THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND IT IS FORECAST TO FULLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 24 OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 BUT THEN BIFURCATES INTO TWO DISTINCT SCENARIOS. THE GFS, NVGM AND HWRF FAVOR A TURN TO THE WEST AFTER TAU 12, EFFECTIVELY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS CONTINUE TRACKING THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FAVORS THE CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN