Tropical Storm LINFA Advisory Thu Jul 09

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM EAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS A 20 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH WEAKENED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE
CHINA COAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS BEING
OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TYPHOON LINFA IS TRACKING ALONG
THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL STR EXTENSION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY LINFA WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRACK SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CHINA THROUGH HONG KONG. LAND INTERACTION AND STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON SURGE WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN
FAIR AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
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