MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED 347NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION REMAINS ELONGATED AND OFFSET TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF A PARTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AS THE SYSTEM BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST, AS EVIDENCED BY LOW LEVEL COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS LINES WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LLC IN THE 202033Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS WHICH ALSO DEPICTS THE LLC BEING DISPLACED FROM THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST AND CONTINUE TO VENTILATE THE OFFSET CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), FOR NOW, REMAIN WARM AND CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO 20-25KTS. THIS AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE OFFSETTING THE OUTFLOW AND SST, RESULTING IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COL BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND THE STR TO THE EAST THAT HAS BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 14W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR TO THE EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KTS BY TAU 36. ALSO, BY TAU 24, IT WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE STATIONARY FRONT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN