Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory Mon Oct 26

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS
ORGANIZED AFTER PASSAGE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MINDORO, WITH THE
CONVECTIVE CORE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND DEGRADED. A 260503Z AMSR2
36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 260556Z LOW RESOLUTION ATMS 16.5 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURES, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), INDICATING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CORE,
WHILE WEAKENED, IS QUICKLY REFORMING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
DUE TO THE RECENT TERRAIN INTERACTION AND ATTENDANT DISRUPTION OF
THE CORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KTS, PLACED IN THE
MIDDLE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) TO
4.5 (77 KTS) FROM RJTD AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY, AN ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T4.9 (88 KTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 86 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TY 21W
LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE REGION WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND
WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VWS, AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TY 21W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 21W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR
ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. A RESUMPTION OF INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, REACHING A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU
24 AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY, LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION EVEN AS
SSTS COOL TO LESS THAN 28 DEG CELSIUS AND VWS INCREASES. THE 25/18Z
COAMPS-TC RUN CONTINUES TO REFLECT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A PEAK OF
100 KNOTS OR LESS WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A PEAK ABOVE 100 KNOTS
AROUND TAU 36. TY 21W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU
48, SOUTH OF DA NANG, VIETNAM AND WILL CONTINUE INLAND NORTHEAST
THAILAND BY TAU 72, WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXTREMELY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 35NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24, INCREASING TO 95NM AT TAU 48, JUST
AFTER LANDFALL. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 36, THEN NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS FROM TAU 48 TO 72 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, TY 21W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS
WESTWARD OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WITH DISSIPATION OVER LAND
EXPECTED BY TAU 96 NEAR THE THAILAND-MYANMAR BORDER. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF JGSM WHICH REMAINS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, LENDING OVERALL
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
NNNN