Tropical Storm MOLAVE Advisory Mon Oct 26

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A STRENGTHENING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING PINHOLE EYE AT
1200Z. BY 1320Z, THE RAGGED PINHOLE EYE BECAME FULLY EVIDENT, THOUGH
IT IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITSELF. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN THE OUTER BANDS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
THOUGH NEW DEEP AND COLD CONVECTION IS REFORMING TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE RAGGED EYE. A 261106Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT
THE EYE IS VERY WELL DEVELOPED AND VERTICALLY STACKED IN BOTH THE 91
GHZ AND 37 GHZ BANDS, INDICATING THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS
IMPROVING AFTER CLEARING MINDORO ISLAND AND MOVING OVER OPEN WATERS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
90 KTS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW AND T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM RJTD, AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KTS) AND A SATELLITE
CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 86 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
TY 21W LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE REGION WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD
AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. VWS IS ESTIMATED TO BE 15-20 KNOTS FROM THE EAST,
SUPPORTED BY THE SHARPLY DEFINED EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ENVELOPE. TY 21W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 21W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. TY 21W IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER A POOL OF WARM (NEAR 30 CELSIUS) WHICH,
WHEN COMBINED WITH ROBUST DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, WILL ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO FIGHT OFF THE MODERATE EASTERLY VWS. AFTER PEAKING BY TAU
12, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES OVER
THE COOLER WATERS (LESS THAN 28 CELSIUS) IN THE WAKE OF TY 19W
AND INCREASING VWS OFFSETS STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TY 21W IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 40 SOUTH OF DA NANG, VIETNAM AND
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL THAILAND BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH A SPREAD OF
85NM AT TAU 36, INCREASING AFTER LANDFALL. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 24
THEN NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FROM TAU 48 TO 72 WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT MIXED, WITH
SOME MEMBERS INDICATING NEAR-TERM WEAKENING, WHILE THE REGIONAL
(HWRF AND COAMPS-TC) MEMBERS INDICATING VERY WEAK INTENSIFICATION.
THE JTWC FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MEMBERS IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT APPEARANCE OF THE EYE FEATURE, BUT
COMES MORE IN LINE WITH THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BY
TAU 24.//
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