Tropical Storm GONI Advisory Wed Oct 28

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTY-TWO) WARNING
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1030
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION,
ALBEIT WITH MINIMAL RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD TRACING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A NOTCH
FEATURE IN THE 2800859Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 35KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T1.5/25KTS TO T2.5/35KTS, AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 32KTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION
OVER THE LAST 6HRS. TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OVER
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA
AND UNDER LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12, THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS, AND BY TAU 72, WILL BE
APPROXIMATELY 345NM EAST OF MANILA. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 48, THEN
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 72 AS IT DRIFTS OVER
A WARMER (31C+ SST) POOL OF WATER IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AS THE STR WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL LUZON,
PHILIPPINES, AROUND TAU 102, THEN EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY
TAU 108. INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN IN ADDITION TO INCREASED
VWS (20KTS), WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING DOWN TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM THE SOLE
RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL
PORTIONS OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID SLIGHTLY LEFT OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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