Tropical Storm GONI Advisory Tue Nov 03

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI) WARNING NR
027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND RJTD
AND A T3.0 FROM KNES WITH SUPPORT FROM A 030229Z ASCAT-B PASS WHICH
INDICATED A VERY SMALL PATCH OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS UNDER THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION
HAS MEASURED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS OR LESS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINAL TO UNFAVORABLE REGION
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VWS, MODERATE WESTWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (27 TO 28 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS STILL
TRACKING GENERALLY WEST, BUT HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS AS THE STEERING PATTERN HAS WEAKENED IN RESPONSE TO AN
EXPANSION OF THE COL REGION BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR)
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND NORTH OF GUAM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THE STEERING PATTERN WILL
STRENGTHEN AS THE STR OVER SOUTHERN CHINA BUILDS AND EXTENDS
EASTWARD, ALLOWING TS 22W TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AND TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72, MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
VIETNAM AROUND TAU 68. THE INTENSIFICATION ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VWS, AND
DECREASING SSTS OFFSETTING MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING SPREAD TO 200 NM BY TAU 72.
THE NVGM TRACKER HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED, AS IT TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A
HIGHLY UNLIKELY COURSE FAR TO THE NORTH NEAR HAINAN BY TAU 72. THE
JTWC FORECAST LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
IN LIGHT OF THE NEAR-TERM SLOW, WESTWARD MOTION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE.//
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