Tropical Storm VAMCO Advisory Tue Nov 10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 413 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM THAT HAS OVERALL IMPROVED AS EVIDENCED
BY A DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND RAIN BANDS THAT HAVE WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON RAGGED BUT
DEFINED LLC FEATURES IN THE 100420Z AMSR2 AND 100525 ATMS MICROWAVE
IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS AVERAGED FROM THE ADT
ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS AND PGTW/RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS
AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW
(5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA REMAIN WARM AT 29-
30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 25W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD
THE PHILIPPINES, PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF CATANDUANES ISLAND
AROUND TAU 24 THEN BRUSH THE COAST OF CAMARINES NORTE BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE OF RIZAL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. AFTERWARD,
IT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION JUST SOUTH OF MANILA
BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) AROUND TAU 42. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A GRADUAL THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION
TO 90KTS BY TAU 36, JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, LAND
INTERACTION WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 70KTS AS IT EXITS INTO THE
WARM SCS WHERE IT WILL RE-CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TO
75KTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS VAMCO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE SAME STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL
VIETNAM NEAR DANANG JUST BEFORE TAU 120. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FURTHER WEST IN THE SCS, DECREASING SST AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 50KTS BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODELS GRADUALLY SPREAD TO OVER 250NM BY TAU 12O WITH AFUM
AND UEMN AS NOTABLE RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIERS, UNREALISTICALLY DRIVING
THE VORTEX INTO THE STR. THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS LAID WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE RIGHT OUTLIERS.//
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