Tropical Storm MELOR Advisory Sun Dec 13

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
10-NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE
IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105
KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TY
28W IS TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS IN VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH LOW (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (ABOVE
28 CELSIUS), AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER THE PEAK FORECAST INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS.
   B. TY MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION
TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS SOUTHERN LUZON. AFTER TAU 24, LAND
INTERACTION WILL RESULT IN A RAPID WEAKENING.
    C. BEYOND TAU 72, A GREATLY WEAKENED TY 28W WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY COLD SURGE IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. INCREASING VWS, LAND INTERACTION, AND INFLUX OF COLD DRY
AIR FROM THE SURGE WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE UP TO THAT PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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