MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 06// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TOKAGE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 29W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, TS 29W SHOULD SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONG NORTHEAST SURGE. AT THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE EVENT. THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 29W SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING SURGE EVENT AFTER TAU 48.// NNNN NNNN