Tropical Storm KAMMURI Advisory Tue Dec 03

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, FOUND USING ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SUGGESTED THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS FALLS BETWEEN RJTD AND PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) AND T5.5 (102 KTS),
RESPECTIVELY. WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION AS THE
TYPHOON PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS IS WEAKENING THE
INTENSITY. TY 29W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 29W SHOULD GRADUALLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT CONTINUES FOLLOWING THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER
TAU 24, TY 29W WILL BECOME CAUGHT IN A STRONG, COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE
FLOW AND SLOWLY TURN EQUATORWARD. GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TY 29W THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER
TAU 24, INTERACTION WITH THE COLD SURGE SHOULD CAUSE MORE RAPID
WEAKENING, DROPPING THE INTENSITY TO 30 KTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS HIGH THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EQUATORWARD AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS SEEM TO LOSE TRACK OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER BY TAU 96 AND THE PAUCITY OF AIDS MAKES
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOW.//
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