Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN Advisory Wed Dec 21

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO
T2.5 (25 TO 35 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH
SSTS NEAR 30 CELSIUS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MODERATE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. CURRENTLY TD 30W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING
RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND
THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH 75
KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TD 30W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER LUZON
SOMETIME AFTER TAU 96 AT OR NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT GROUPING IN
POSSIBLE TRACKS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRACK.//
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