MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// RMKS/ SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 33// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 6 NM SOUTH OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL AREA OF PERSISTENT CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION, WITH A CLOUD SHIELD AND WEAKENING SPIRAL RAIN BANDS STRETCHING TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS UNDER THE KNES AND PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS), BUT CONSISTENT WITH THE RJTD ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS). NEARBY OBSERVATIONS FROM 14-60 NM AWAY REFLECT WINDS RANGING FROM 37-44 KTS AND PRESSURES FROM 979-993 MB. 979 MB WOULD SUPPORT 58 KTS OF WIND OVER OPEN WATER WITHOUT TERRAIN EFFECTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET BY HIGH (25-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST DAY AND CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS NOT YET BEEN SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 26C AND NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS NOW ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 6, TS 30W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOL WATERS BELOW 26 DEGREES C AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS BRUSHING THE KOREAN PENINSULA, AND LAND INTERACTION WILL ALSO HELP WEAKEN TS 30W IN THE NEAR-TERM. TS 30W WILL COMPLETE ETT AROUND TAU 18. THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP A BROAD, ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AND FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT TRANSITIONS, MAINTAINING GALE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST TRACK AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BY TAU 24, MODEL SPREAD IS 88 NM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN