MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 33W (USAGI) WARNING NR 25// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 33W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 143 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE APPEARED BRIEFLY BUT HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 240627Z AMSR2 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS PLACED BETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0(65 KTS) AT RJTD AND T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY IS HEDGED CLOSER TO THE RJTD ESTIMATE BECAUSE THE PGTW CLOUD SIGNATURE WAS T4.5 (77 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 33W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 33W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD, AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD, AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HO CHI MINH CITY JUST AFTER TAU 24. SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES VIETNAM, THEN WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TY 33W SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND AFTER TAU 72 AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS.// NNNN NNNN