Tropical Storm THREE Advisory Fri May 14

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 006//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
NORTHWEST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS VISIBLY WEAKENING,
ANIMATED VISUAL IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED ROTATION AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ON ALL SIDES. THE SYSTEM MADE IT ACROSS THE FIRST MOUNTAIN RANGE IN
EASTERN MINDANAO AND IS NOW TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTH COTABATO
PROVINCE BETWEEN DAVAO AND COTABATO CITY. RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MID AND HIGH LEVEL ENERGY HAS RUN AHEAD
OF THE LLCC AND IS INCREASING SATURATION IN THE SULU SEA. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS NOT DEEP AND SURFACE REPORTS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE ISLAND DO NOT INDICATE SEVERE WINDS, BUT THE SYSTEM
IS CLEARLY MAINTAINING SOME VIGOR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL VORTEX OF TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN DURING THE DURATION OF ITS OVERLAND TRACK, CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY POINTS TO A REALISTIC POSSIBILITY THAT THE LLCC WILL ENTER
THE SULU SEA OFF ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE AND STABILIZE. THE RECENT SURGE
IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK PROVIDES SOME
INDICATION THAT THE SYSTEM MAY RE-GROUP SOMEWHAT AFTER IT RETURNS TO
THE WARM WATERS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENCROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NEARING PALAWAN WILL STIFLE SHARP RE-INTENSIFICATION
AND EVENTUALLY CAUSE DISSIPATION, BUT THE PROCESS MAY TAKE LONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE CLOSER THE SYSTEM TRACKS
TOWARDS PALAWAN, THE MORE SUBSIDENCE AND LESS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IT
WILL ENCOUNTER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A FLAT INTENSITY TREND
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BIGGEST FORECASTING DIFFICULTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS DETERMINING HOW MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX WILL BE
LEFT OF THE SYSTEM AND EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL RE-ENTER THE SULU SEA,
BUT THERE REMAINS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SULU
SEA WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER. UNTIL
THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX MOVES BACK OVER WATER, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DURATION OF THE LIFESPAN OF TD 03W WILL BE HIGH.//
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