Tropical Storm JANGMI Advisory Mon Aug 10

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI)
WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 30
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED
WITHIN AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS
OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. TS 05W IS TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-29C). POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MINIMAL DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE CIRCULATION, PRIMARILY WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 05W WILL CONTINUE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
STR THROUGH THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. STORM MOTION WILL REMAIN
RAPID AS THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 24. INCREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW TS 05W TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE
TRANSITION, DESPITE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER
MUCH COOLER WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
NNNN