MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 18// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 61 NM EAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TS 09W REMAINS TIGHTLY WRAPPED. HOWEVER, IT NO LONGER HAS A DEFINED EYE FEATURE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH KYUSHU. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 052330Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A NOTCH FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER LAND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 09W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). TS 09W ALSO HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD BUT A LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TS 09W IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, HOWEVER, THE SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS). TS 09W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 09W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 06, TS 09W WILL TRACK BACK OVER WATER WHICH WILL SLOW THE WEAKENING AND ALLOW TS 09W TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF BUSAN WITH AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE TS 09W NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TS 09W WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TS 09W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT ACCELERATES EASTWARD AND MAINTAINS AN INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN