Tropical Storm NOUL Advisory Fri Sep 18

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR
011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 172358Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM
MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF HUE, VIETNAM AT ABOUT 18/0100Z AND HAS
BEGUN TO TRACK INLAND. 18/0130Z SURFACE WINDS AT HUE (VVPB)
INDICATED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS
WITH A MINIMUM SLP NEAR 989MB. DUE TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20
KNOTS OFFSET BY VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES
(31C). TS NOUL CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS NOUL WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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