MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 37// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION IS BUILDING AROUND THE CENTER AND A NEW EYE FEATURE IS FORMING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SUPPORED BY RJTD RADAR FIXES AND A 222248Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PARTIAL PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 16W HAS ADDED A POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN ADDITION TO EXISTING ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS. TY 16W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST. SSTS ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE AT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE EAST BUILDS INTO A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL PATTERN, AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES SUBTROPICAL. VWS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL AROUND TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY, GONI�??S TRACK IS ALIGNED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE KUROSHIO CURRENT, PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE SSTS LEADING UP TO ITS INITIAL LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, CALLING FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE NOTED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE FORECAST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO DEFLECT TO A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION AS THE STEERING STR BUILDS TO THE EAST. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION WITH KYUSHU, FOLLOWED BY COOLER WATERS OF THE SEA OF JAPAN AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED VWS (35-50 KNOTS) WILL SERVE TO BEGIN A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AT THE SAME TIME AS IT IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY GONI WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING FURTHER BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. GONI WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AT THE SAME TIME AS IT IS MAKES LANDFALL INTO RUSSIA NEAR VLADIVOSTOK. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 THEN SPREADS WITH VARYING DEGREES OF A NORTHWESTWARD TURN, HOWEVER, COAMPS TC IS NOW THE SOLE NORTH-RUNNING OUTLIER. GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN