MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 01// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS LOCATED OVERTOP OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021318Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-30 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AND SUPPORTED BY PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK FIXES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HAS FAIR EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE 29-30 CELSIUS. TD 16W IS TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TD 16W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWEST AS IT TRANSITS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR LOCATED IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AROUND HUE CITY, VIETNAM SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 6. ONCE OVER LAND THE TRACK WILL SHIFT MORE WESTWARD. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT DISSIPATES. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL THE CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN