Tropical Storm SAUDEL Advisory Sun Oct 25

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR
026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
NORTH OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE PREVIOUS SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A TIMELY 250559Z
AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEFINED BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC, WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MSI PLACES HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KTS
BASED ON A 250100Z ASCAT-A PASS SHOWING A SWATH OF 35-40 KT WINDS IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ADDITIONALLY, THE INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5-
3.0 (35-45 KTS) BY PGTW AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE VALUES. TS 19W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, STEADILY WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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