MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTENING RAIN BANDS AND A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A FORMATIVE EYE AS EVIDENCED BY A CLUSTER OF WARM PIXELS SURROUNDED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 192054Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0/45KTS TO T4.0/65KTS AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. SST VALUES OF 29-30C REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STR AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 90KTS BY TAU 36 AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS THEN TO 105KTS BY TAU 72, FUELED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THEN ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AFTER IT CRESTS THE STR, PEAKING AT 110KTS BEFORE IT STARTS WEAKENING MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS, AND BY TAU 120 SHOULD BE DOWN TO 95KTS AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING TO 150NM AT TAU 72 AND 175NM AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN