MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 025// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DECAYING CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 242123Z SSMIS 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC THAT IS NOW OBSCURED BY CONVECTION, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM RJTD AND KNES, SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 242123Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 70 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTIALLY OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. TY 22W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON ANALYSIS OF RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY. B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY 22W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS VWS INCREASES TO VERY STRONG LEVELS (50-70 KNOTS). NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 130NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN