MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 24W (HALONG) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 24W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 10 NM EYE, PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 145 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 060740Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 137 KNOTS AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.5 (155 KTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. STY 24W IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AT 28-29 CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. STY 24W WILL CONTINUE TO RECURVE ALONG A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN THIS TRACK UNTIL TAU 36. AT THAT POINT, INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AT TAU 48. DUE TO INCREASING VWS, DECREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SLOW TRACK MOTION OVER WATERS WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, STY 24W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT AND TAKE ON FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE SLIGHT VARIATIONS REGARDING THE COMPLETION OF THE RECURVE, CREATING SOME ALONG TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, SUPPORTING OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN