Tropical Storm ETAU Advisory Sun Nov 08

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (ETAU)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (ETAU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081746Z ATMS
88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
WITH LIMITED BANDING WRAPPING OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF A WEAKLY-
DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KTS BASED ON
PGTW/RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15
KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SST VALUES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C. TD 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK QUICKLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN VIETNAM NEAR TAU 30. AFTER TAU
30, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN BY TAU 48. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 33NM AT LANDFALL
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE 08/1200Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATES GREATER SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY AT LANDFALL
WITH A 90NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS (LANDFALL CENTER LOCATION FROM 12.5N
TO 14.0N).//
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