MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204 NM NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS POSITIONED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON BANDING SEEN IN MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 270336Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSES REVEAL A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 29W WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY TRACK BY TAU 24 AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, WEAKENING THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AND ALLOWING A COL TO FORM. AROUND TAU 48, THE ORIGINAL STEERING STR WILL RE-BUILD AND RE-DIRECT TS 29W WESTWARD. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY FUEL STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF TS 29W TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DUE TO SHEAR AND POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK, THERE IS OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 29W WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STR. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KNOTS UP TO TAU 120. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EFFECTS OF SUSTAINED MODERATE SHEAR AND POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALOFT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN EARLY RECURVE BY JGSM AND NAVGEM. HOWEVER, THE DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED IN LATER TAUS AND THE STORM MOTION UNCERTAINTY IN THE COL, GIVE FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN