MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 964 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, FROM A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A PARTIAL 290613Z SSMIS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. MUTLI- AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5-5.0 (77-90 KNOTS) ARE ABOVE A 290349Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 60 KTS, GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS. MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PARTIALLY OFFSETTING FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. TY 29W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 29W WILL TURN WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THROUGH LANDFALL IN THE PHILIPPINES, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND TY 29W WILL INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FALLS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE INTENSITY AIDS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE MAINTAINS STRONG AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES PRIOR TO TAU 96. TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN AS TY 29W PASSES OVER THE PHILIPPINES DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH.// NNNN NNNN