MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 13// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND WRAP TIGHTER INTO - AND COMPLETELY SURROUND - A TIGHT CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF A WELL-DEFINED 12-NM EYE IN THE 010000Z 1-KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR A MINOR TILT. THIS POSITION LINED UP WELL WITH A 302207Z SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY AND ADT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90 KNOTS AND T5.5/102 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER AND LOW LEVEL ANALYSES INDICATE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS (SUPER TYPHOON) BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN, DOWN TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINOR SPREADING IN THE ENVELOPE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY KONG-REY 30W WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK MORE POLEWARD, PASSING APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST OF OKINAWA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96. HIGH VWS AND REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM, DOWN TO 75 KTS BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF ON THE LEFT AND CTCX ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE THAT QUITE EVENLY SPREADS OUT TO OVER 350 NM AT TAU 120. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN