MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 19// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 34W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER, AND RAIN BANDS IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 240626Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE WHICH SHOWED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28- 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TY 34W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 34W WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS TO THE NORTH. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE HOSTILE TO THE CYCLONE AS HIGH VWS AND DRY AIR CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PRESENTS A WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBLE TRACKS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STR. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK, NUDGED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND GALWEM SOLUTIONS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN