MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35W (THIRTYFIVE) WARNING NR 12 RELOCATED// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 35W (THIRTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 579 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 270600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. TD 35W HAS BEEN RELOCATED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING BASED ON THE LLCC WHICH IS EVIDENT IN MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 35W IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 35W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 35W WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TD 35W TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 35 KNOTS BY TAU 36. A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE STR WILL ALLOW TD 35W TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. BY TAU 36, THE STR WILL BUILD AND TD 35W WILL TRACK WESTWARD. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES THROUGH TAU 60 WILL ALSO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM WHICH FAVORS A TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 35 WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN STR LOCATED OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TD 35W TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK WITH AFUM COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED INITIAL POSITION OF TD 35W BASED ON LLCC EVIDENT IN MSI.// NNNN NNNN