Tropical Storm KAMMURI Advisory Wed Dec 04

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR
035//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM WEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST. A NOTCH FEATURE
IN A 040531Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF
RJTD AND PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND
T3.5 (55 KTS), RESPECTIVELY. MARGINAL (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE REFLECT A SOMEWHAT HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.
TS 29W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER ASIA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 29W SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN EQUATORWARD AS BECOMES CAUGHT IN A
STRONG, COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW AROUND THE STR. UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
UNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES, NO LATER THAN TAU 72 BUT POSSIBLY
SOONER. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, PARTICULARLY IN
THE CROSS-TRACK DIRECTION, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
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