Tropical Storm KAMMURI Advisory Thu Dec 05

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING
NR 039//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EMBEDDED IN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COOL, DRY NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 050449Z ASCAT-A PASS ALONG WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE LLCC IN A 050600Z HIMAWARI-8 IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF
35-40KT WINDS IN THE ASCAT-A IMAGE. TS 29W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 29W WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF COOL, DRY AIR FROM
THE NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. WINDS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN EXCESS OF
30KTS WILL REMAIN, HOWEVER THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT, AND NOT FROM TS 29W, WHICH WILL DISSIPATE
OVER WATER BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET ENSEMBLE WHICH REMAINS AN EASTERN
OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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