MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM EAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS LOOSELY FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 160924Z SSMIS NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 AND T1.0, RESPECTIVELY, AND CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING KOROR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE AT 29C. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 03W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLAND OF MINDANAO NEAR DAVAO. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT MAY PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, THEN LAND INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL DECAY AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER, AFTER TD 03W MAKES LANDFALL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT TO OVER 200NM BY TAU 72 WITH NAVGEM ON THE RIGHT AND GFS ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN