MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 232110Z CORIOLIS 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, ASSISTING IN PLACING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN AT 24/00Z CONTRIBUTED TO PLACING THE LLCC TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING 5.0-5.5 (90-102 KTS). STRONG (25-30 KT) VWS IS OFFSETTING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) TO DEGRADE THE ENVIRONMENT TO MARGINAL. TY 22W IS ROUNDING THE AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. BY TAU 12, TY 22W WILL HAVE ROUNDED THE STR AXIS AND BEGUN TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT WHICH TIME VWS WILL BEGIN SEVERELY IMPACTING 22W, REACHING 45 KTS BY TAU 12 AND 65 KTS BY TAU 36. INITIALLY, THE IN-PHASE STORM MOTION WILL OFFSET THE VWS ENOUGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY TO 90 KTS AT TAU 12. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 12 TY 22W WILL BEGIN RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS THE VWS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND SSTS DECREASE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT STARTS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 BUT SPREAD STEADILY INCREASES AFTERWARD AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES ETT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TRACK.// NNNN NNNN