MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 834 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 300557Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE THAT FURTHER DEPICTS BANDING AND CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF AN APPARENT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE 85GHZ IMAGE FROM THIS PASS DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL CENTER OFFSET 44NM TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THIS, ALONG WITH AN OBLONG CIRCULATION IN AN EARLIER 300102Z ASCAT-B IMAGE, SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE DUE TO PERSISTENT VWS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70KTS IS HEDGED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.5 (77KTS) BASED ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TY 29W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS OFFSET BY WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 36, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 36, A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL ERODE THE STR TO THE WEST OF TY 29W, AND ALLOW A STR TO THE NORTHEAST TO STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THIS EROSION OF THE STR TO THE WEST WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO 105KTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER LUZON WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION. POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHEAST SURGE MAY ALSO LEAD TO A FURTHER DECAY IN INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST, HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN INTENSITY FORECASTS AND THUS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. HERE, IT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THUS CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH.// NNNN NNNN