MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 29// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STY 26W HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF REMARKABLY WELL, WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM RETAINS A 39 NM EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL SINCE THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS. DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDS THE EYE, THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE THAN THE OTHER QUADRANTS. A 132232Z SSMIS 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS A VERY STRONG, SYMMETRIC EYEWALL AND EXCELLENT SPIRAL BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LARGE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AT 150 KNOTS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T7.0 (140 KNOTS) TO T7.5 (155 KNOTS), AS WELL AS A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 152 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, THOUGH THE PREVIOUS TAP INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, SLIGHTLY IMPINGING OUTFLOW IN THIS QUADRANT, AS EVIDENCED BY THE WEAKER CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN THIS QUADRANT. VWS REMAINS LOW AND SSTS AND OHC REMAIN SUPPORTIVE. STY 26W CONTINUES TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. STY 26W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A VERY INTENSE SUPER TYPHOON ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF LUZON NEAR TAU 20. SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE NEAR-TERM IS EXPECTED AS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND EXPERIMENTAL MODEL PRODUCTS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) OCCURRING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN FEATURES OF NORTHERN LUZON. STY 26W WILL REEMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 30 AS A 110 KNOT SYSTEM. A PERIOD OF SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN THE SCS BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARM WATERS, FREE OF TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXTREMELY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH LESS THAN 25NM SPREAD AT LANDFALL, INCREASING TO 115NM AT TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. C. AFTER TAU 72, STY MANGKHUT WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SCS JUST SOUTH OF HONG KONG MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA PRIOR TO TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN VIETNAM AND MYANMAR BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE LATER TAUS, PARTICULARLY AFTER TAU 96, WITH MANY MODELS LOSING THE VORTEX COMPLETELY WHILE OTHERS TAKE THE SYSTEM EITHER NORTHWEST OR NORTH. OVERALL HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TAU 96, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.// NNNN NNNN