Tropical Storm BONNIE Advisory Tue Jun 28

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

Overnight satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance
continues to struggle.  While there is a ball of convection near
the best surface center, GOES 1-min data shows no signs of a
well-defined center, and the mid-level circulation seems displaced
a degree or more west of the low-level wave axis.  Maximum winds
are held at 35 kt for this advisory, pending Air Force Hurricane
Hunter data later this morning.

The system appears to have sped up, with a rough motion estimate of
280/20 kt.  A strong ridge to the north should keep the disturbance
moving generally westward or west-northwestward at a quick pace
through the forecast period.  It is a close call on whether or not
the system can stay far enough offshore of South America to become a
tropical cyclone and potentially strengthen, or if it moves inland
over South America and eventually forms later in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea.  The new NHC forecast brushes most of the coast of
Venezuela, and consequently shows little change in strength for a
couple of days as a low-end tropical storm.  After that time, low
shear and warm waters could support the system becoming a hurricane
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, but that will largely depend on
what's left of the system after interacting with land.  No changes
were made to the end of the forecast with such high uncertainty.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands and
northeastern Venezuela tonight through Wednesday. Localized flash
flooding will be possible.

2.  Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and
Wednesday, and on Bonaire by Wednesday evening.

3.  There is higher-than-normal uncertainty on the system's forecast
intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late
Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with
land from tonight through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z  9.3N  55.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  28/1800Z  9.9N  58.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  29/0600Z 10.7N  62.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  29/1800Z 11.3N  66.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 11.7N  70.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  30/1800Z 12.0N  73.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 11.9N  77.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 11.8N  82.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 12.0N  88.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake