MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 02// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 908 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF A BROAD LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 191030Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE (MI) DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CORE CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING. BASED ON THE MI, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SST (29 TO 30C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TD 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 72, TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 175NM AT TAU 72. C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AFUM, EGRR, JGSM AND NAVGEM INDICATE A RECURVE SCENARIO NEAR GUAM, WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY. GFS AND NAVGEM ERRONEOUSLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO AND THROUGH A STRONG STR POSITIONED OVER GUAM WITH NO MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENT. ADDITIONALLY, GFS AND NAVGEM SHOW A BROAD STR TO THE EAST OF JAPAN, WHICH SHOULD REINFORCE THE EXISTING STR. THE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE (ECMF, EEMN) INDICATES A FLATTER TRACK MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A NON-RECURVE SCENARIO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO THE LACK OF A MIDLATITUDE RECURVE MECHANISM (DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM), AND PRESENCE OF A STRONG STR. TD 02W IS FORECAST, HOWEVER, TO INTENSIFY TO 105 KNOTS AS IT SKIRTS SOUTH OF GUAM, AND MAY STILL PRODUCE GALE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS AND ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS OVER GUAM. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.// NNNN NNNN