MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 09// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 484 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY AS RAIN BANDS WRAP TIGHTER TOWARD A DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A DIMPLE FEATURE, A PRECURSOR TO A FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 210532Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BASED ON A THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/75KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 02W IS IN A STRONG WESTWARD/POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS MITIGATED BY THE STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE VWS FLOW. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 29 CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 02W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL AND FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AT ABOVE NORMAL RATE, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS IT NEARS GUAM. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY ERODE AS VWS INCREASES AND SSTS COOL. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY WUTIP WILL TRACK NORTH AND ROUND THE STR AXIS AS THE STR RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. TY 02W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS VWS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND SSTS DECREASE, OFFSETTING THE IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BECOMES WIDELY SPREAD TO OVER 500 NM AT ITS WIDEST WITH GALWEM AS THE WESTWARD OUTLIER. THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ALSO VARY IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN