MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 25// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM NORTH OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 02W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 105 KNOTS TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AXISYMMETRIC, ANNULAR- LIKE CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A 25NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 250530Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYMMETRIC EYEWALL. DESPITE THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST VALUES (26 TO 27C) AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND AN UNUSUALLY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A ZONAL JET STREAM TO THE NORTH (AS EVIDENCED BY THE TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IN THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD AS WELL AS A 250343Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 134 KNOTS. STY 02W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS OBVIOUSLY BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE RECENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE. B. THROUGH TAU 24, STY 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP- LAYERED STR TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING TO THE NORTH. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO AN IMMINENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE SUGGESTED IN THE 250419Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND UW-CIMSS M-PERC PRODUCT. AFTER TAU 24, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH. CONSEQUENTLY, STY WUTIP WILL TURN WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 25-26C. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST. C. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS (35-45 KTS) AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL (200MB) WESTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOLE OUTLIER, JGSM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 150NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT.// NNNN NNNN