MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 29// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN A 260600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, AN ADT CI OF T6.1 (117 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 116 KNOTS FROM 060415Z. TY 02W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND HAS AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TY 02W IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 6, TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AS THE STR TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STR TO THE EAST IS INDEED BUILDING WESTWARD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AND CAUSE TY 02W TO RAPIDLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. BEYOND TAU 12, TY 02W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WILL ALSO DECREASE ALLOWING TY 02W TO DROP TO AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TY 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT TY 02W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD. THE MODEL SPREAD IS NEARLY 200 NM BY TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN