MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR 20// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM WEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON MSI IMAGERY AND A 160500Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND A 160328Z RSCAT PASS. TS BAVI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS BAVI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS BAVI WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD MOTION UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS VWS AND UPPER- LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE, TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 120 IN NORTHERN QUEENSLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN