MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM EAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY DEEP FLARING CONVECTION. A 022223Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND MULTI-AGENCY FIXES, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5-4.0 (55-65 KTS) BY PGTW, RJTD, AND RCTP. ADDITIONALLY, A 030010Z ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND A 022223Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 66 KTS LEND GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. LOW NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR, FAIR OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) CONTRIBUTE TO AN OVERALL MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, MILDLY DEGRADING THE OUTFLOW IN THAT REGION. TS 03W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR, TS 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12 THEN TS 03W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL IN EASTERN CHINA BY TAU 24. AS TS 03W ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD EXPERIENCE INCREASING VWS AND FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS, CONTRIBUTING TO A STEADY WEAKENING OF THE STORM. AS IT RECURVES TO THE NORTHEAST, TS 03W SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN WHILE IT TRANSITS OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE WEST SEA WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE LARGEST MODEL SPREAD (106 NM) OCCURRING AT TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES. THUS, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN