MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING FEEDING FROM THE SOUTH AND WRAPPING INTO AN ILL- DEFINED LLC OBSCURED BY DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A LOW LEVEL NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 172226Z SSMIS COLORIZED 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30KTS. ANALYSES INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT VWS, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM 31C SSTS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR THIS SYSTEM AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 30 NEAR YANGJIANG, CHINA. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 45KTS AT TAU 24 BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, THE RUGGED CHINESE TERRAIN, IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VWS, WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINOR SPREADING, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN