MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GRADUAL WEAKENING AND WARMING OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A 20NM EYE. A 252217Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ERODING INNER EYEWALL WITH A NARROW MOAT AND OUTER EYEWALL. THE UW-CIMSS M-PERC PRODUCT DEPICTED THE WEAK ERC AND SHOWED A PEAK PROBABILITY OF 45%. UPPER- LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SST VALUES (29 TO 30C) REMAIN CONDUCIVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.0-5.5 (90-102 KNOTS) AND A 252340Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 5.3/5.4 (ROUGHLY 100 KNOTS). TY 09W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING STR TO THE EAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOLE OUTLIER AFUI, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH A 31NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT REFLECTING A HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW UNCERTAINTY) FORECAST TRACK. NEAR TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS THE MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TY 09W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST (28-25C) OVER THE NORTHERN YELLOW SEA AND STRONG VWS AFTER TAU 12. TY 09W SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND NEARS THE JET. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN