MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR 25// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE DEGREE OF WRAP INTO A BANDING LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A DIMPLE FEATURE ALIGNED WITH THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYER REFLECTION OF THE STR EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 10W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR EXTENSION RECEDES AND A SECONDARY STR LEAF BUILDING IN FROM MAINLAND CHINA ASSUMES STEERING. AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL DEFLECT WESTWARD AS THE NEW STR BUILDS. SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24, TS 10W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA, DRAG WESTWARD ACROSS THE CHINESE SEABOARD. TS LINFA WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. THERE IS ALSO A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE HAS PEAKED AND WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE HERE ONWARDS. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AND DISSIPATE IT JUST WEST OF HONG KONG BY END OF FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY VARIED IN BOTH SPEED AND LOCATION OF THE TC TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN