MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH AN INCIPIENT RAGGED EYE FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A 030007Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE, PRESENCE OF A CYAN RING IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND EMERGENCE OF A PINHOLE EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST AN IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS). UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (30-31C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE 02/1200Z 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AND WESTERN JAPAN WITH A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A COL REGION IS POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND NORTHEAST OF OKINAWA WITH MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER OKINAWA REFLECTING THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. TY 11W IS TRACKING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS TRACKING TOWARD THE COL REGION. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THE STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND REMAIN STATIONARY OVER JAPAN WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLING OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA. TY 11W WILL TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE BREAK (COL) IN THE STR ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 70NM AT TAU 72...CURRENTLY ALL TRACKERS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PASS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF OKINAWA. THE 02/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE ALSO SHOWS ALL SOLUTIONS EAST OF OKINAWA. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TAU 36, HOWEVER, THE PEAK MAY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK, WHICH COULD SHIFT EASTWARD CLOSER TO KYUSHU--THE BULK OF THE 02/12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE CLUSTERED FROM 129-131E NEAR KYUSHU. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 WHEN IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER NORTH KOREA. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN