MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 37// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING STRUCTURE AS TY SOUDELOR RE-MERGES INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP, SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AS WELL AS COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 13W IS LOCATED AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SOUDELOR IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY SOUDELOR WILL REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTERWARD, TY 13W WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. SOUDELOR WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS IT MAKES A FINAL LANDFALL IN CHINA AT TAU 12. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER INLAND, IT WILL ERODE RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN