MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 04// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND LOWERED DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, NOW IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE RJTD ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). CURRENTLY TD 14W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYERED RIDGE TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. IN THE NEAR FORECAST TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE AS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION. BY TAU 24 TO 36 TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE DISTURBANCE 92W CURRENTLY AT THE EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS BOTH TD 14W AND DISTURBANCE 92W CONSOLIDATE TOGETHER AND MERGE. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COUPLED WITH A NORTHERN TRACK INTO COOLER WATERS WILL HINDER THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 14W WILL SHIFT TO A NORTH-WESTERN TRACK AS A MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COOLER WATERS AND POOR UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL HELP WEAKEN TD 14W, AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. LIMITED DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE DUE TO DIFFICULTY TRACKING THE ALREADY WEAK VORTICITY SIGNATURE. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, BUT DIFFER AS INTERACTION WITH DISTURBANCE 92W OCCURS. DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS AND LIMITED AVAILABLE MODEL TRACKERS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN