MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 10// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING MSI AND A 032319Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES, CORROBORATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, GIVEN ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD, BUT IT IS RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. TS 14W IS TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THE STR OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 72. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (AT LEAST 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE TRACK. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT CELL DIMINISHES IN THE COMING DAYS, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW TS 14W TO RECURVE TOWARD JAPAN. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL ALLOW TS 14W TO INTENSIFY TO 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POORER AGREEMENT, WITH SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK ERRORS. HOWEVER, AN EVENTUAL RECURVE SCENARIO IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS LATTER PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN