MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 581 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TY 14W AS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, MAINTAINING A VISIBLE EYE FEATURE. A 070000Z HIMAWARI-8 VISIBLE 1KM IMAGE ALONG WITH A 062354Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A 10 NM EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY (75 KTS) IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD, CONFIRMED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T4.4/75KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10- 20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). CURRENTLY, THERE IS FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE SYSTEM. TY 14W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 12, TY 14W WILL CONTINUE ON THE PRESENT TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER STR. BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLOW AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. AFTER TAU 36, THE STORM WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AN ACCELERATE THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO AROUND TAU 36 AS A SIGNIFICANT TYPHOON WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS, MAINTAINING LOW VWS AND WARM SST. HOWEVER, MODELS DEPICT DEVELOPMENT OF A TRANSIENT UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, INDUCING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND RESULTING IN A SLOWING IN THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. ONCE THIS ANTICYCLONE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM BY AROUND TAU 24, THE OUTFLOW WILL REINTENSIFY, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS NORTHEAST BACK OVER WATER, COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL COMBINE TO OFFSET THE STRONG OUTFLOW AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TY 14W AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST, WITH ONLY 50 NM SPREAD AT TAU 48 INCREASING TO 90 NM BY TAU 72 WITH ONLY NAVGEM AS A NORTHERLY OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. C. BY TAU 96, TY 14W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW, AND TRANSITION TO A GALE- FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, WITH INCREASING ALONG AND CROSS-TRACK UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAUS. BASED ON THE INCREASED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY TAU 96, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN